Evidence Framework
A poker rule, a probability calculation and a gambling-behaviour study answer different kinds of questions. Our evidence labels make that distinction explicit.
The label describes the nature of the evidence—not a universal score of whether a conclusion is “true.” A primary operator rule can be authoritative for that operator while still being irrelevant to another poker room.
Evidence labels
| Label | Best used for | Main limitation |
|---|---|---|
| Primary rules | Official tournament procedures and house rules. | May be jurisdiction-, event- or operator-specific. |
| Operator documentation | Current product formats, payouts, fees and platform mechanics. | Can change and does not generalize automatically. |
| Mathematical derivation | Card probabilities, pot odds and break-even arithmetic. | Only as valid as the stated assumptions. |
| Research review | Patterns across multiple empirical studies. | Study populations and gambling products may differ from poker. |
| Study summary | Understanding one specific empirical study. | One study rarely settles a broad question. |
| Original reference | Transparent tables calculated by Double Up Poker from stated formulas. | Not independently peer reviewed. |
| Interpretation | Explaining practical meaning and connecting concepts. | Should not be mistaken for direct empirical evidence. |
Evidence strength is contextual
For a question such as “what happens when two players bust simultaneously in this tournament?”, current operator rules may be the best evidence. For “what is the probability of hitting one of nine clean outs by the river?”, transparent combinatorial arithmetic is more appropriate. For harm-minimisation claims, empirical research is required.
Update policy
Stable mathematical derivations are reviewed when formulas or assumptions change. Operator and tournament-rule references are periodically rechecked because product names, fees and procedures can change. Empirical summaries retain the publication context and should not be silently rewritten as if later research were part of the original study.
Sources
- Poker Tournament Directors Association — 2024 Rules, Version 1.0 — Primary industry rules reference; TDA notes house/regulatory rules may supersede its rules.
- PokerStars — Tournament Rules — Current operator documentation illustrating tournament-specific implementation.
- McMahon et al. — Gambling Harm-Minimisation Tools and Their Impact on Gambling Behaviour — 2024 empirical-evidence review covering 55 studies across eight harm-minimisation tool categories.
Source type and limitations are described above. External sources are used for verification; Double Up Poker calculations and explanations are independently produced.
Last updated: August 26, 2026 · Publisher: Double Up Poker