Hold’em Outs Probability Reference
An original reference table calculated from exact unseen-card counts for 1–15 clean outs.
Values are calculated by Double Up Poker from 47 unseen cards after the flop and 46 after the turn. “By river” assumes the listed outs remain clean across both cards.
Probability table
| Clean outs | Hit next card (47 unseen) | Hit by river from flop |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2.13% | 4.26% |
| 2 | 4.26% | 8.42% |
| 3 | 6.38% | 12.49% |
| 4 | 8.51% | 16.47% |
| 5 | 10.64% | 20.35% |
| 6 | 12.77% | 24.14% |
| 7 | 14.89% | 27.84% |
| 8 | 17.02% | 31.45% |
| 9 | 19.15% | 34.97% |
| 10 | 21.28% | 38.39% |
| 11 | 23.40% | 41.72% |
| 12 | 25.53% | 44.96% |
| 13 | 27.66% | 48.10% |
| 14 | 29.79% | 51.16% |
| 15 | 31.91% | 54.12% |
How to use it
Use the next-card column when one card remains or when you only need the probability of improving on the immediate next street. Use the by-river column only when you expect to see both remaining cards without additional decision costs that materially change the comparison.
Limitations
Raw outs are not the same as hand equity. If an opponent can improve to a stronger hand, if some outs are shared or dirty, or if ranges matter, a dedicated equity model is required.
Method
See Poker Probability Methodology for formulas and assumptions.
Last updated: August 26, 2026 · Publisher: Double Up Poker